The 9x Effect

I noticed that there are many new cool products in the world that for some reason cannot move their less cool competitors from the market.

For example, let's take the sphere of messengers: there is my favorite Telegram, and there are WhatsApp and Viber. WhatsApp is the most popular messenger in the world, Viber is very popular in some not very developed countries. For the life of me, I can't understand how people can use this shit in the world where Telegram exists. This is where the 9x Effect comes into play.

What's the point

On average, entrepreneurs overestimate the competitive advantages of their products by 3 times. At the same time, users overestimate the benefits of their current products by an average of 3 times.

3 * 3 = 9

So there’s a nine-fold gap between our wishes and our harsh reality.

Psychological basis

Have you heard about the Kübler-Ross model, which is used to describe the stages of depression? Interestingly, this model can be applied to the stages of new product adoption:

• Denial. Do you want me to stop using what I have been using for many years? Nope!
• Anger. This is silly! I don't fall for idiotic trends. No one can force me to do this (hello TikTok 😄).
• Bargaining. Perhaps this product does have benefits, but not the fact that they outweigh my reluctance to change the habit.
• Acceptance. Yes, this is a great product, much better than the previous one. How could I not use it before?

Instead of a conclusion

It turns out that to change the habit, it is not enough just to make the product a little better than that of competitors who have already managed to gain a foothold in the market.

It is necessary to create such a significant value that it forces the user to go through all the stages of Kübler-Ross and acquire a new habit.

In short, we have 2 options:

• Create just a good product in a very fast-growing market (or a market that is just emerging).
• Create a hell of a cool product on the existing market to beat the 9x Effect.